After two consecutive defeats, China’s U17 national team faces a must-win situation in their final Group B match against Qatar in the AFC U17 Asian Cup. With no room for error, the team must secure victory and hope for favorable results elsewhere to keep their World Cup dream alive.
**Current Standings**
After two rounds, Japan leads Group B with 6 points, while Qatar and Indonesia each have 3 points. China remains at the bottom with 0 points. However, thanks to Qatar’s 2-0 win over Indonesia in the second round, China still has a mathematical chance to advance.
The final round sees China vs. Qatar, while Indonesia takes on Japan.
**Qualification Scenarios**
The path for China is straightforward but requires two conditions:
First, Japan must defeat Indonesia in the other match. Without that, China’s hopes are over.
Second, China must beat Qatar. A draw or loss would eliminate them from both the Asian Cup and the U17 World Cup.
Let’s break down the possibilities:
– If China beats Qatar by 2 goals, all three teams (China, Qatar, Indonesia) would finish with 3 points. China would then top the mini-table with a +1 goal difference, Qatar has 0, and Indonesia -1. China would finish as group runner-up behind Japan.
– If China wins by just 1 goal, Qatar would take second place, and China would finish third. However, since Qatar automatically qualifies for the U17 World Cup as hosts, the best third-placed team among all four groups could still earn a World Cup berth. In that scenario, China’s record against the group’s last-placed team (likely Indonesia) would be excluded, leaving them with 3 points and a 0 goal difference.
Among other groups, only Group C poses a potential challenge for the best third-place spot. There are three specific outcomes where China would compete with Group C’s third-placed team on goals scored and goal difference.
Overall, if China beats Qatar and Japan beats Indonesia, there is approximately a 60-70% chance that China will qualify for the U17 World Cup. Whether they also reach the Asian Cup knockout stage depends on the margin of victory against Qatar.
**Predicted Lineup**
China U17 (4-4-2):
Goalkeeper: 1-Qin Ziniu
Defenders: 2-Jin Yucheng, 3-Nan Zixun, 4-Li Junpeng, 5-Zhang Xuyao
Midfielders: 10-Wan Xiang, 6-Zhou Yunuo, 15-Pan Chaowei (or 17-Xu Zhengpeng), 9-Xie Jin (or 8-Kuang Zhaolei)
Forwards: 11-Shuai Weihao (or 20-Zhang Bolin), 14-Zhao Songyuan
Coach Fu Shimin is expected to stick with the defensive back four and double pivot, but one change could see Xu Zhengpeng replace Pan Chaowei after his strong substitute appearance last match. On the attacking end, Xie Jin has shown he is more effective off the bench, while Kuang Zhaolei’s fitness remains a concern after missing two games. Shuai Weihao, who has struggled, might be replaced by Zhang Bolin.